I don't know if Pathfinder will replace D&D.
I used to think that WotC had misread their audience, but now I suspect that the accurately read a portion of their audience, but were expecting most folks to jump on the new bandwagon even if they weren't completely satisfied with it.
There are enough folks that are happy with 4e that I can't say that there was no support. But it did not attract folks who liked 3.X - it was aimed at a vocal, perhaps large, minority who did not like 3.X. I think that WotC expected the pro 3.X folks to decide on joining up anyway, perhaps after bellyaching for a while. (And then they got their dig in with that animated advert that pretty much labeled folks complaining about what they saw of 4e as trolls. Guess what? Didn't help.)
Pathfinder meant that a lot of folks didn't have to make the decision to follow D&D's new direction, and could avoid making that decision, jumping ship for a company that they had already come to know and respect during their years of producing Dungeon and Dragon. (Dungeon, in particular, was reinvigorated under Paizo.) Changing company, but not game, really.
So the migration to 4e was smaller than expected. And, in my opinion, WotC, who had been worried about 3PP glutting their market managed to glut their own market, all on their lonesome.
They have since trimmed down their release schedule, which I hope will lead to a healthier product line. (Though Paizo seems to be doing quite well with their own aggressive release schedule - a monthly adventure, several lines of supplementary material tied to that campaign world, and three major releases a year. Maybe WotC needs more lower priced additions?)
It is possible that Borders is tailoring the event to local conditions, so in places where 4e is popular they get 4e, in Pathfinder markets they get Pathfinder. I kind of hope that this is the case.
But what I have heard is that Pathfinder is doing a whole lot better than anticipated, and 4e... is underperforming compared to 3.5 when it was the same age. (Mind you, Pathfinder is also underperforming compared to brand new and shiny 3.5.) Just doing better than 4e.
I think that the split has happened, and if WotC tried to go back and make 5e closer to 3.X then they would face rebellion from their 4e fans, but not gain much from the folks that have gone to Pathfinder. Pathfinder is now well enough established that they have no real reason to change again.
From now on 'D&D' will follow along two lines - Pathfinder and 3.X for one branch and the 4e architecture for the other. And while WotC will have the brand name, both camps will think of themselves as D&D.
I do not see the two tribes reuniting while Ewoks jump around the fire yelling Yub Yub! Even if the Empire, err, I mean WotC were to fail then the folks who like 4e won't be going over to Pathfinder.
The Auld Grump, somnambutyping
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(Hard to believe that the kids are tenth level already. They grow up so fast.... 
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