I don't think that the sales info you guys have heard is just unique to your areas.

A friend of mine here in Minneapolis owns a FLGS. Most of his business in the past has been heavily reliant upon Games Workshop products. Much of the local miniatures gaming crowd have centered around his store. Unfortunately, the new edition, especially with its higher price point, hasn't sold much. He's been worried about that 'cuz that seems to be affecting sales of all GW stuff at his place.

He also says that 4th Ed. D&D doesn't sell worth a dang, either. The stuff mostly sits on the shelf. And almost no gaming groups have been playing it in the store. The one recent exception is D&D Encounters, which has been bringing in some new people, but it has pre-gen PCs and is basically a set of mini-adventures. That's not the type of stuff that prompts people to buy more of the 4e books. Pathfinder has grown slowly but steadily for him. I've heard the same thing from other FLGS stores around.

Now, those are just a few local stores. What's telling is that their distributors are painting a similar picture. The main local distributor of gaming-related stuff is telling my friend that 4e doesn't sell worth a crap--to the stores. When 3.0/3.5 was going strong, they would ship out at least 1 of the books per day. Today, they will go for weeks without sending out even a single 4th Ed. book.

I don't know what the big chain bookstores, B&N and Borders are experiencing, but the local ones seem to have the same stock of 4e stuff every time I'm there. (and I'm at B&N 3 times a week on average) And I REALLY don't know what the online sales are.

Somewhere on a forum just a few weeks ago, I came across a post from Mike Mearls of WotC (I think it was him) where he said that the initial print runs of 3.5 was larger than 3.0 and 4.0 was larger than 3.5. Of course, they're even more secretive about sales figures now than TSR ever was, so that only tells us so much.

What's REALLY telling are the web sites that either do play-by-post or that serve as an organizing point for virtual-tabletop-style games. MythWeavers.com is a pretty popular site for doing that for all kinds of different RPGs. Here are the number of active games I've noted over the last 6 months or so:

Number of Active Games
Edition 3/29/10 6/15/10 9/24/10
4e 105 115 126
3.5e 501 362 275
PF 6 17 31

(I can't figure out how to make something look like a proper table in a post--if someone has a tip on how to do that, lemme know)

So, if this is any indication, then apparently 4e and PathFinder are slowly gaining in popularity, but players are abandoning 3.5 in high numbers. It's not clear what game system those folks are moving to, though. Of course, my informal survey has the flaw that I was measuring the mostly non-winter months, so this coming December and January will probably be better indicators.

Interesting points about D&D Insider subscriptions, by the way. I'm surprised that many people are willing to pay $15/month for stuff that doesn't live up to what they told us would be available at launch. I can see paying that for the "virtual tabletop" that they said was coming, but it's been 2 years now and (as far as I've heard) that feature STILL isn't there.

If, as is implied by much of my data and that of a few other posters, 4th Ed isn't selling all that well, but new books are being churned out fairly often, then what would be the consequences of that situation, I wonder? When it was TSR, they eventually had to declare bankruptcy. Since WotC has other business lines, there wouldn't be such a thing. Plus, with Hasbro as the parent company, does that mean the product line could be sold off? Or discontinued? Hasbro doesn't have a good reputation in the industry regarding other businesses or business lines that they've purchased.

I think that the online subscription from Wizards negatively impacts the sale of their books. The only reason to buy the books is for the "fluff" since all of the "crunch" is available via the subscription products.

That's a good point, Talae. I've often wondered about that possibility. Since I have never bothered to subscribe to DDI, I don't know how well it could replace the actual books.

Once more into the edition war...

Essentials is the set of books for Book stores (like Borders) to stock going forward. (In short, stores like Borders will not be told to stock original 4e.)
http://critical-hits.com/2010/08/07/gen ... s-seminar/

Grump... Kingmaker is awesome... I may run a 4e version.

Kane... Essentials is a dumbed down version of 4e that fits the 3.5 style of making characters. Stuff between 4e and 4E is shareable and interchangeable. In the case of the DragonBorn book you were looking at, all feats and powers are shareable. (What's not obvious is that for the Knight, the Slayer and the Thief, this only refers to Utility Powers.)

Grump... To my knowledge, once Essentials ends, that is it. Its 10 products. All future products are supposed to be in the original 4e vain.

Ninivah... I'm not sure how much information you can really glean from strictly internet based sites. Online gaming really just selects for computer aptitude and the wish to mix it with an RPG.

Ninivah... I pay $5 a month, just to get the latest from character generator, and it also includes Dungeon and Dragon Magazine. I find it worth it. I do know that there are quite a lot of people not using Insider at all. Those would be the ones who are buying the 'Power Cards'. (You really don't need those if you use character generator.)

Ninivah... Here, 4e has utterly trounced everything. In a town of 1.1 million, sales are very very strong, and every store is running Encounters. d20 sales is dead.

Talae... Online subscription does not affect book sales, quite the opposite. You cannot play 4e without the books, and not everything is in the character generator. Rituals, class abilities, and some item utilization is all described in the books. Online subscription reinforces WOTC's monopoly.

Grump.. dabbling is the norm in the gaming industry. "Oh look... new shiny."


The original complaints for 4e were that it was selling, but not getting played... that is not true any more. This has been clearly documented by Goodman Games. (And all he sells is dungeon crawls...Yuck.)
http://www.d20source.com/2009/06/goodma ... doing-fine
Claims that WOTC was in a Death Spiral... have been proven utterly utterly false.
http://rpgpundit.xanga.com/698172157/item/

Both of those two statements come from people in the industry with something to say. One of them illegally reads other people's email. I'll let you guess which one.

Now, if you read the Escapist (3.5 grognard) interview regarding essentials;
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/article ... enaissance
What isn't obvious is that The Escapist was in fact now tempted to try 4e based on that interview.
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/article ... -Interview

So guys... give it a shot.

Mearls also doesn't play 2e or 3.5 or Pathfinder, or the game he wrote (3.5 Iron Heroes). They must all be unstable or suck or something.

Or perhaps preferences are preferences. I'm sure that if WOTC wanted to go bankrupt they could sell 1e again. They could then occupy the same market space as Castles and Crusades. (Not quite a jab... I like C&C.)

In life, one needs to separate what one does, with what one wants. Goodman says exactly that. 4e isn't for him. But its selling 100 times better than 3.5, and 10000 times better than 1e. (I think that only measures the dungeon crawl segment of the market...IMO)

You just need to read more if that is your intent.
http://www.koboldquarterly.com/k/front-page1277.php

I think Mearls preferences are his own and personally, as a programmer, I simply cannot start a home programming (consulting) business. I do it all day, so I'm not about to do it all night. I just couldn't take it.


Here's what was said about Ryan on Enworld: (It takes a while to go through all that... including Ryan Dancey's questionable ethics.)
http://www.enworld.org/forum/general-rp ... piral.html

Shortly after Ryan's article came out PHB2 hit the NYT Best Seller list. So all conjecture about bad sales are utterly false. PHB2 hit higher than 3.5 PHB.. Does that help? (I'm not sure myself.)

Pulled Online sales... a world wide best seller on RPGDriveThrough sells 60 units in 1 month. That's nothing. Its not even worth filling out the paper work. The fact is that RPGNow clearly over sold their position. Make no mistake they are the pirates. Killing previous editions of games doesn't sound wrong in my mind. (Doesn't sound nice though..)

Suing downloaders? Most companies are confused about what to do about it. Ask Denny. I worked for a company which used open source then refused to share. (1 million lines of debugged code for free, and my boss doesn't want to give a WIFI driver back? *sigh*)

Any statement that WOTC is following TSR's policies is wrong. And clearly so. They are watching what sells and what doesn't and adapting. That's what Essentials is. Its an easy on ramp for older players. They canceled the players books Kane mentioned because they didn't sell. Sounds like a whole lot of listening to me.

If 3.5 sold 1 million books... and 275 guys played on line? I'd say you could conclude that .00275% of the market might be doing something. There is nothing significant there to see or learn from.

In regards to RPGNow - if there was any service that was hurt by the collapse of 3.0 sales it was the PDFs. Then Drive-Thru/RPGNow pulled some real hinkiness following their merger - renegotiating terms without the input of their publishers, then trying to hold those publishers to a contract that they themselves had broken.... Denny was not the only publisher that they lost. (Mr. Wieck needed to be beaten over the head.) They managed to fragment a market that was already in trouble, and not all that large to begin with. PDF sales plummeted, and have never recovered.


***WARNING - EDITION WAR RANT!***
In regards to 4e and telling people to 'try it' after they have repeatedly said that they would rather nail their right foot to the floor and run around in circles - that is also a way of fueling an 'edition war'. Knock it off. Some folks are just not interested in 4e. Telling them to play it anyway is annoying!

Go ahead and suggest it to folks who are asking an open question - if you like 4e and someone else asks 'what's a good game to play' then by all means chime in with a suggestion for 4e.

If someone says 'I really don't like the look of 4e' then don't argue with them. Even if they admit that they only read the rules and never played. All you will accomplish is to make them dig in their heels and shout even louder. Most folks can tell whether or not they like the game, just by reading the rules.

If someone says 'I only like 4e' then leave them alone! They are playing the game they like, and unless they start dissing your (obviously much better) game then they are doing you no harm. Trying to get them to change their minds is annoying, and will make them less likely to try another game, since the folks suggesting [Game of Choice] are obviously a bunch of jerks. Some folks are just not interested in anything else!

If someone asks an open question as to what is a good game, then feel free to chime in with a suggestion for Fantasycraft/Pathfinder/True20/Savage Worlds/F.A.T.A.L..

On the other hand do not take everyone who says they don't like [Game of Choice] as an attack! If the person sounds calm and reasonable then let them roll the dice the way they want.

I am getting very annoyed with folks who assume that a comment about high returns is an attack on the freakin' game! WotC has admitted that high returns on 4e products are a serious problem. It happens. Most likely they will respond with smaller print runs and possibly fewer releases. This has nothing to do with the quality of the game, and everything to do with needing to change their sales model.

I don't think that D&D is in a death spiral, though I do think that Mearls may not be the best choice for the game at this point. (He is the one pointed out as ignoring playtesters. He becomes attached to his rules, and tries to protect them.) On the other hand, it is quite possible that he has been sufficiently beaten with a reality stick that he is actually paying attention.

As for Mearls not playing 4e... I seem to recall that before he went to work for WotC he admitted that he almost never played much of anything. A lot of game designers don't - for them it is work, not fun. Especially when it is a game that they are working on. (Monte Cook is an exception - he plays a lot of games, including the ones that he is writing for.) Both TSR and WotC used to have a company policy that everyone played at least one game a week. For all that I know WotC still might - and that if so this is still a good thing.

I also doubt that 4e will last as long as 3.X - and I also suspect that it is not supposed to. That WotC wants something with shorter design and play cycles, with libraries being turned over more quickly.

As for Dungeon Crawl Classics - I would take Goodman's word with a grain of salt. Most major booksellers no longer carry DCC, and they did for 3.X. They may be selling for 4e better than they are for 3.X now, but I think that their heyday has passed.

Then again, there is just not as much competition for the 4e market as there was for 3.X - the two 'big' 3pp for 4e are, if I recall correctly, Expeditious Retreat Press and Goodman Games - neither one of which were huge sellers under 3.X. (Even though ERP came out with some of my very favorite 3e supplements. The Magical Society books were very, very good.) Goodman's DCC does fit pretty much exactly into what WotC wants 3pp to make for their game.

WotC has lost most of their 3pp, and all of the biggest ones. For a time it was more profitable for many game companies to support D&D then it was to support their own games, but the GSL pretty much kills that.

The Auld Grump

*EDIT* In case someone doesn't pick up on it - I am getting annoyed with both sides on this, even though I prefer 3.P. So everyone, knock it the heck off!

That IS an odd list. It's got the new Gamma World boxed set, which hasn't even been released yet, outselling almost everything else already printed. That seems a little hard to believe because it's a specific niche product. I would at least expect that the core 4th ed books, which it's based upon, to have outsold it over the 2 years they've been out.

Heh, always take any numbers from Amazon with a truckload of salt - whether it is sales numbers, release dates, or shipping dates....

I like Amazon, and shop from them a fair amount, but ignore any figures from them.

And, it turns out that Pathfinder did outsell 4e for September... by less than five dollars. My loaner copy of the APG tipped the numbers. (So, I kind of give 4e the win for that one... I skewed my own numbers.) October is no contest though - 4e by a landslide so far, with no exciting new releases for Pathfinder until Bestiary 2 in a few months. The box set, the Essentials, and Dark Sun are all doing well.

The manager pointed out that the Tiles set for Essentials mentions that it can be used with any edition. He would kind of like them to do the same with future D&DM releases, 'cause really, minis don't much care what edition you are playing. My take, on the other hand, is that I would be happier if they did better looking minis... though I will admit that they do an okay job on the bigger figs. A big chunk is the limits of the manufacturing and materials that they have chosen.

The Auld Grump

<Back to our regular program>

Wow, today I ran into somebody who really hates Essentials - a 4e player who feels that Essentials is D&D 4.5, after WotC promised that they wouldn't. He went on for a good five minutes about how they aren't the same game....

Honestly? As far as I could make out from his rant the games are pretty danged similar, mechanically close to identical. Mind you, his rant also did not fill me with any urge to play either version of the game. (Though it did sound as though more thought was put into how skills work, this time around.) I did not suggest that he take a look at Pathfinder, lest he decide that the Advanced Player's Guide was heresy....

Into the third week of running Pathfinder game for the grownups.... The players seem to be having fun, though one now wants to try an Inquisitor - in a game that is taking place in unsettled lands. To add to the fun - the Arcane caster is a Witch... She is so ridiculously happy with her character. The person who wants to play an Inquisitor is her husband.

The Auld Grump - a Druid, a Witch, and an Inquisitor in the same party? Oy!